Why the Iran war hasn’t caused a global oil crisis — yet

When Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz in March, forecasters warned of fuel rationing, mass flight cancellations, and oil at $200 a barrel. That has not happened. Countries released more than 400 million barrels from emergency stockpiles, the U.S. and other producers pumped more crude, and more than 100 countries cut fuel use through measures like shorter work weeks and driving restrictions. Oil prices spiked but eased after a June ceasefire, before climbing again to about $85 a barrel in July when the ceasefire broke down.

For U.S. homeowners, the most visible effect so far has been at the gas pump and grocery store rather than at home. Gasoline inventories are unusually low heading into summer driving season, since refiners have been making more jet fuel and less gasoline, and prices for goods tied to Middle East shipping routes, including some materials used in electronics, have risen. There is no mention here of new home energy rebates, appliance costs, or heating and cooling prices tied to this conflict.

Analysts warn the relief may not last. Stockpiles that cushioned the first months of the crisis are running low, and China has resumed buying oil for its own refineries. If the strait stays closed, experts say prices may have to rise sharply to bring supply and demand back into balance, since the world no longer has the same buffer of reserves and idle production it used earlier this year.