Why haven’t we had an Atlantic hurricane yet? Thank El Niño.
A record-strong El Niño, the band of warm water in the Pacific, is reshaping weather across the Americas this year. It's the warmest El Niño measured since satellites began tracking sea temperatures 50 years ago, and scientists expect it to keep intensifying into November or December. One side effect: the Atlantic hurricane season, which started in June, has yet to produce a single hurricane, breaking the previous record for latest first hurricane, which was September 11. El Niño creates wind shear and dry air over the Atlantic, conditions that hurricanes can't tolerate even though ocean water there is plenty warm.
The Pacific side is seeing the opposite. Hurricane Polo intensified from a tropical storm to a Category 5 in under a day, an example of "rapid intensification" tied to unusually warm water. It's expected to hit Baja California, Mexico, early next week. Another storm, Nolo, became a hurricane and could bring heavy rain to Hawai'i.
Beyond storms, this El Niño is projected to contribute to hundreds of thousands of heat deaths globally in its first nine months, and it's expected to shift rainfall patterns worldwide, bringing more rain to California and the Southwest while drying out other regions. For homeowners, the immediate takeaway is regional: if you're in a hurricane-prone Atlantic area, this season has been unusually quiet so far, while those in Pacific coastal regions or Hawai'i face active storm risk. Scientists note this event offers a preview of conditions expected to become more common as the planet continues warming.
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