The US may be hitting a tipping point for heat pumps

Heat pumps are becoming the default choice for heating and cooling in the US. These devices pull warmth from outside air and bring it indoors, and in summer they run in reverse to cool a home like a regular air conditioner. That two-in-one design, plus much higher efficiency than gas furnaces, is why sales have doubled over the past 15 years. In the first quarter of this year, heat pump shipments outpaced gas furnace shipments by 32 percent, and in 2024 they were installed in 46 percent of new homes, nearly matching traditional furnaces.

New construction is driving much of this shift. Three-quarters of new apartments are heated electrically, and builders increasingly skip gas hookups altogether. The catch is that some builders still choose basic electric resistance heaters (like baseboard units) instead of heat pumps. Resistance heat gets one unit of warmth for each unit of energy used, while heat pumps deliver two to four times that, making them a much cheaper option to run over time. Still, heat pump use in new apartments has been rising steadily since 2010.

Some utilities are also testing "networked geothermal," where pipes carry water underground to link heat pumps across a neighborhood, tapping steady underground temperatures instead of outdoor air. This can be far more efficient than home furnaces. Supporters argue that as heating and cooling use less energy overall, the grid needs less new power infrastructure, which could help keep electricity bills down as demand from data centers and electric vehicles grows. For homeowners weighing a furnace or AC replacement, this shift suggests heat pumps are becoming the mainstream, cost-effective choice rather than a niche upgrade.