The US clean energy boom will continue to 2030. Then things get hazy.

A new analysis from the Rhodium Group finds that the country's rapid buildout of solar, wind, and battery power will keep breaking records through the rest of this decade, no matter what Washington does. That's mostly because projects that broke ground by July 4 can still lock in federal tax credits for clean energy if they're finished within the next four years, so developers are racing to build. Analysts expect roughly 50 gigawatts of new wind, solar, and storage capacity each year through 2030, matching last year's record pace.

What happens after 2030 is much less certain. Once those tax credits expire, clean energy will have to compete with natural gas on cost alone, and the outcomes range widely. In the most favorable scenario, clean power keeps growing fast while gas construction stays minimal. In the least favorable one, gas plants surge while new wind and solar nearly stall out. A middle scenario has renewables dipping in the early 2030s before rebounding later in the decade. Much will depend on who controls federal policy after 2030, plus how gas prices move as U.S. exports rise.

For a homeowner, the near-term takeaway is that clean power should keep expanding through the end of the decade regardless of federal politics, which could mean more renewable electricity on your grid and continued momentum for home electrification incentives tied to state programs. What the 2030s bring is harder to say, and will depend on economic and policy shifts that haven't happened yet.