The Iran war pushed countries toward clean energy — and coal

When the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran earlier this year, oil and gas shipping through the Strait of Hormuz nearly stopped, and fuel prices spiked in Europe and Asia. That price shock has pushed the world's energy use in two different directions at once. Some countries are burning more coal to make up for pricier oil and gas — the International Energy Agency now expects global coal use to hit a new record this year, reversing an earlier forecast of decline. At the same time, the high fuel prices have driven a surge in electric vehicles, solar, storage, and even nuclear power, as households and businesses look for cheaper alternatives.

The net effect, according to a new analysis from Carbon Brief, is that global fossil-fuel emissions are still expected to dip slightly this year, mainly because oil demand is dropping faster than coal use is rising. China is the clearest example: even with more coal burned, the country's overall emissions fell because oil use for transportation dropped sharply as EV sales hit records. Similar EV surges have shown up in Australia, Indonesia, and parts of Europe.

None of this changes anything about home energy programs or rebates directly. But it's a reminder that the shift toward electric cars, heat pumps, and home solar isn't just a local trend — it's accelerating worldwide, partly because fossil fuels keep getting more expensive and unpredictable. The coal bump is expected to fade once the crisis does; the new clean-energy equipment being installed now will not.