Mixed outlook for energy expenditures this winter

Heating bills this winter will depend a lot on what fuel you use and where you live, according to a new federal forecast. Homes that heat with natural gas should see costs drop about 9% compared to last winter, and propane users can expect a smaller drop of about 3%. That's good news for roughly half of U.S. households, which rely on those two fuels.

The picture is less favorable for other homes. The more than 40% of households that heat with electricity are expected to see bills rise about 4%. And if your home uses heating oil, the forecast is for a 21% jump in spending, the largest increase of any fuel. Heating oil is mostly used in the Northeast, and prices for it are expected to climb 34% from last winter, driven by tighter global supply and reduced refining. U.S. inventories of heating oil are running about 11% below their five-year average heading into the season, though forecasters note that milder temperatures in parts of the Northeast could soften the blow somewhat.

Weather is also shifting the math. The Northeast is expected to have a warmer winter than last year, while the West is forecast to be much colder after an unusually mild winter in 2025-26. The Midwest and South should see temperatures similar to last year. If you're budgeting for heating costs this season, it's worth factoring in both your main fuel type and how your region's weather outlook compares to last winter.