Leaked EU Hydrogen Draft Moves From Quotas To Credits

A leaked draft from the European Commission suggests a change in how the EU plans to push renewable hydrogen use after 2030. Right now, EU rules require industries to use a set share of "renewable fuels of non-biological origin," a category that includes hydrogen made with renewable electricity: 42 percent of relevant industrial hydrogen by 2030, rising to 60 percent by 2035. The leaked plan would drop those binding national targets and replace them with an EU-wide goal plus a credit system, giving countries and industries more flexibility in how they meet it.

The draft also lowers expectations for how much hydrogen Europe will actually need. Its main scenario projects 18 million tonnes of renewable hydrogen use by 2040, with a low case of 8 million tonnes. That matters because making hydrogen from electricity is inefficient — a lot of power is lost in the process compared with using electricity directly. Less hydrogen demand could mean more renewable electricity is available for direct uses instead, including things like heat pumps and electric appliances, and the draft notes this could also help keep electricity prices lower.

This is European industrial policy, not a US program, and it is still just a leaked draft rather than final law. It has no direct bearing on home rebates or upgrades. But it is a useful sign of a broader shift in how policymakers are weighing hydrogen against direct electrification — a debate that shapes how much clean electricity ends up available, and at what price, for uses like home heating and electric appliances down the line.