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Here’s what supercharged the monster wildfires in Spain and France

July 31, 2026 · Grist · Score: 14

Wildfires this summer have driven hundreds of thousands of people from their homes in France and Spain, in one of Europe's largest evacuations since World War II. A new study from World Weather Attribution, a scientific group that studies climate change's role in extreme weather, found that human-caused climate change made fire-prone conditions at least twice as likely in France and at least 20 times as likely in central Spain. So far this year, about 430,000 hectares have burned across Europe, already ahead of last year's record-setting pace.

The study points to a pattern researchers call "weather whiplash." A wetter-than-usual winter spurred heavy plant growth in early spring. Then months of heat and drought dried that vegetation out, turning it into fuel. Scientists say a warming atmosphere holds more moisture and releases it in more intense but less frequent bursts, making this swing between wet and dry more likely. Land use played a role too: abandoned farmland and a decline in cattle grazing, which once kept plants trimmed down, along with dense pine plantations in southwest France, made the landscape more flammable.

Forecasters expect only brief relief before more heat arrives by mid-August, with drought conditions persisting across France, Spain, Germany, and Hungary. For homeowners, the news is less about your own house and more about the bigger picture: the same climate trends driving these fires abroad are part of why heat waves and drought are becoming more common and more intense in many regions, a trend that shapes long-term decisions about home cooling and energy use.

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