Heat pumps may soon outsell air conditioners in US

Heat pumps are close to outselling standard air conditioners in the U.S. for the first time. A heat pump is essentially an air conditioner that can run in reverse, so one unit both heats and cools a home. A decade ago, conventional ACs outsold them two to one. In 2025, sales were nearly even, and heat pumps actually beat ACs in September of that year. Through April of this year, heat pump sales are up about 1% compared with the same period last year, while AC sales are down almost 8%, according to industry trade group data.

Heat pumps use two to four times less energy than fossil-fueled heating systems, and their cold-weather performance has improved enough that they're now catching on in colder states, not just milder ones like those in the South. Many states, cities, and utilities have pushed adoption through rebates, building codes that favor electric equipment, or lower electricity rates for heat pump owners. Maine, despite its cold winters, set an adoption target for heat pumps and has already surpassed it.

One incentive that's no longer around: federal tax credits for heat pumps, which Congress and President Trump repealed last year. Depending on where you live, state or utility programs may still offer help with the cost of switching. If you're weighing a replacement for an aging furnace or air conditioner, it's worth checking what your state or utility currently offers, since incentives vary widely and change over time.