Chinese TOPCon module prices fall as high-efficiency supply adds pressure

Prices for solar panels made in China are easing, a shift that could eventually feed into lower costs for solar equipment sold in the US and elsewhere. A benchmark price for a common panel type, called TOPCon (a high-efficiency solar cell design), dropped this week to $0.109 per watt, with prices for deliveries as far out as 2027 also trending lower. Prices for even higher-efficiency panels, rated above 650 watts, fell too, though a related panel type called back-contact still sells at a premium.

The price drop is tied to a wave of new high-efficiency panel supply and to Chinese policy changes. A new national efficiency standard, taking effect January 1, 2027, sets minimum efficiency and power thresholds for three panel technologies, pushing manufacturers to upgrade what they build. Separately, an industry group has introduced a standardized way of calculating manufacturing costs across the supply chain, meant to make prices reflect actual production costs and quality rather than aggressive discounting. Industry leaders say this could help push weaker manufacturers out of the market over time.

There's also talk that Chinese regulators may offer an export tax rebate of up to 4% for the highest-efficiency panels, though this is unconfirmed. If it happens, it could make those panels cheaper to export and speed up manufacturers' shift toward higher efficiency. For homeowners, none of this changes anything immediately, but it points to solar equipment gradually becoming more efficient and, potentially, more affordable in the future.