Carrier Sees Residential HVAC Returning to Replacement Mode

Carrier, one of the biggest makers of home heating and cooling equipment, says the residential market is picking back up after a slow stretch. Sales of home HVAC equipment rose 9% in the second quarter, a turnaround from a 12% drop earlier in the year. The company now expects the overall market to hit 7 million to 7.5 million units this year, roughly flat with last year but better than earlier forecasts.

The company's CEO said homeowners appear to be moving from repairing old systems to replacing them, which is the more typical pattern. Last year, many people chose to repair aging equipment rather than replace it, but that trend is fading. New home construction is also running a bit stronger than expected, especially in the Southeast and Texas, adding to equipment demand.

On price, Carrier had planned an 8% increase to cover tariff costs on imported materials, but pulled some of that back after tariff rates dropped. It expects to end the year with prices up about 4% overall. For homeowners, this points to a market where replacement systems remain in decent supply this year, though prices may still edge up somewhat due to tariffs. It does not change any specific rebate or program details, but it suggests less risk of the equipment shortages or long waits that caused problems in past years.