Bills rise when utilities use conflicting forecasts to drive gas and electric investment

A new analysis points to a costly mismatch inside utilities that sell both gas and electricity: their two divisions are sometimes planning for different futures, and customers end up paying for both. In upstate New York, National Grid's electric division expects over 30,000 more heat pump installations by 2030 than its gas division assumes. Because the gas side is planning as if that shift away from gas heating won't happen, it's set to spend $550 million by 2029 on growth-related infrastructure that may not be needed if its own electric division's forecast is right. Researchers estimate the gas utility could end up serving about 15,000 fewer customers than planned.

This matters to your wallet because infrastructure spending like this makes up a large share of both gas and electric bills — about 75% in New York, according to the piece. Under current trends, National Grid customers could see bills rise roughly $300 a year for both gas and electric service by the end of 2027. The concern is that when a utility's gas and electric arms use conflicting assumptions about how many households will switch to heat pumps, one side risks overbuilding infrastructure that goes underused, and ratepayers cover the cost either way.

New York is now considering ways to fix this through "integrated" gas-and-electric planning, which would require both divisions to work from the same assumptions before spending money. A bill in the state Senate (S5995) would push regulators in that direction, and some utilities, including Consolidated Edison and Central Hudson, have already started similar pilot efforts. If your utility serves both gas and electricity, this kind of planning mismatch could be showing up in your own bill, even if it hasn't made headlines yet.