As Jet Fuel Supplies Tighten, Can Other Fuels Meet Demand?

Researchers at the National Laboratory of the Rockies have studied five alternative jet fuels as demand for air travel grows and traditional jet fuel supplies tighten. Jet fuel demand is projected to rise from about 100 billion gallons in 2025 to 165 billion gallons by 2050, and the study looks at whether fuels other than standard Jet A and A-1 can help meet that need using domestic resources instead of imported oil.

The most developed option is sustainable aviation fuel, or SAF, made from sources like used cooking oil, fats, and alcohol rather than crude oil. It can already replace up to half the standard fuel in existing aircraft, but it remains rare, making up just 1% of jet fuel used worldwide, largely because it often costs $6 a gallon or more. As regular jet fuel prices climb past $4 a gallon, that cost gap is narrowing. Researchers estimate the raw materials exist to eventually produce enough SAF to cover 80% of projected 2050 demand, though that would require cheaper production methods and many new refineries. A separate study found New England alone has enough feedstock to produce up to 850 million gallons of SAF equivalent a year.

Three other fuels — liquid hydrogen, liquefied natural gas, and liquefied ethane — are further from everyday use. They require special cold-storage tanks, new airport equipment, and new aircraft designs, so they represent longer-term possibilities rather than near-term fixes. A fifth option, called Jet X, is still in early research. None of this changes anything for homes directly, but it points to how the aviation industry may try to reduce its reliance on imported oil in the coming decades.