AHRI Shipment Report Shows 6 Months of Heat Pump Growth

New industry data shows heat pumps kept up a growth streak through the middle of 2026. Heat pump shipments across the country rose 17.6% in July compared to July 2025, the second-highest July total since this kind of tracking began in 2010. Heat pumps now make up 45.1% of all combined air conditioner and heat pump shipments, close to a record share. Air conditioners also grew, up 22.3% for the month, so the whole cooling market is having a strong year after a slow start in January and February.

For furnaces, gas models rose slightly, while oil furnace shipments jumped 36.6%, though oil remains a small slice of the market overall. Water heaters moved the other way: both gas and electric storage water heaters saw shipments dip compared to last July, with electric models still outselling gas by a wide margin.

Looking at the bigger picture, heat pumps have gone from roughly 3 in 10 cooling units sold in 2010 to about 4.5 in 10 today, a sign that more households are choosing heat pumps over traditional central air conditioning and gas furnaces when they replace equipment. Gas furnaces aren't disappearing, though — July 2026 was actually one of the strongest months for gas furnace sales in the report's history. If you're planning a heating or cooling replacement, this data suggests heat pumps are increasingly the mainstream choice, but conventional gas equipment remains widely available and still selling well.